Network Development Plan 2037/2045 (2023)

This draft contains three scenarios for the year 2037 and offers for the first time an outlook for the “climate-neutral grid 2045”, an electricity transmission grid in a climate-neutral Germany. The phase-out of coal and nuclear power is taken into account, as well as the national hydrogen strategy, key data from the coalition agreement and a more tightly interconnected European internal electricity market. For much of the input data, the TSOs relied on the Agora study “Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany by 2045” and on the study “Long-term Scenarios for the Transformation of the Energy System in Germany 3” from Fraunhofer ISI, Consentec, TU Berlin and ifeu. The individual scenarios of the new draft depict varying degrees of hydrogen use and electrification.

For the first time the NDP describes a power grid that will enable the achievement of climate neutrality by 2045. Electricity plays a central role, since the decarbonisation of the sectors of industry, transportation and buildings is achieved through direct or indirect electrification.

Compared to previous NDPs, the assumptions regarding the extent of hydrogen utilisation have also increased significantly. The new NDP assumes that electrolysers will be built in locations where they can be beneficial to the grid. This approach ensures that bottlenecks in the transmission grid can be minimised and the curtailment of renewable energy in times of high feed-in can be reduced. Overall, the planning of electricity, gas and hydrogen infrastructure should be increasingly coordinated.

A further acceleration of grid expansion is also key to the success of the energy transition. At the same time, the political target of a decarbonised electricity sector by 2035 has been established. Therefore, most of the measures identified for 2045 are already required in 2037.

To cover the increasing demand of electricity consumption to over 1,000 TWh, the NDP expects an increase in renewable capacity up to around 700 GW in 2045. Integrating this capacity while maintaining secure grid operations is only possible with continued grid expansion.

All graphics, tables and texts from the first draft of the Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045, version 2023, are licensed under Creative Commons licence CC BY 4.0. The text of the licence is available at creativecommons.org / licenses / by / 4.0 / legalcode.

An example for proper referencing is: Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045, (2023), first draft | Transmission System Operators CC-BY-4.0
For adaptations / edits: Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045, (2023), first draft | Transmission System Operators (M) CC-BY-4.0

Excluded from this rule are graphics, tables and texts with a different or additional source. Maps can be used with reference to the source and licence indicated there.

From 24 March to 25 April 2023, the consultation on the first draft of the Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045 (2023) has offered the opportunity to participate. During public consultation, the transmission system operators received 288 comments. After detailed evaluation of the received comments, the TSOs revised the first draft. The resulting second draft was published on 12 June 2023 and submitted to the Federal Network Agency.

For the first time, the NDP 2037/2045 (2023) describes an electricity grid that will enable the achievement of climate neutrality by 2045. Electricity plays a central role since the decarbonisation of the sectors of industry, transportation and buildings is achieved through direct or indirect electrification.

The second draft of the NDP 2037/2045 (2023) was revised in consideration of the received comments. The central results from the public consultation are summarised in section 8 of the second draft. In addition, adaptations were incorporated into the individual sections and the profiles in the appendix.

The following aspects were identified as key topics addressed in the comments: It was important to many respondents that the designation of “climate-neutral grid” not be “false labelling”. Many people are very concerned about achieving the 1.5 degree target.

Furthermore, many comments refer to the input data of the Scenario Framework. For example, the weather year 2012 on which the calculations are based is considered outdated. In the future, more extreme weather conditions are expected. In addition to heat, the cooling factor should also be given greater consideration. In connection with the input data, many comments also note that a wider spread of the scenarios would be desirable.

Among private individuals, comments focused more on security of supply compared with previous periods. The top issue from the economic and political spheres was electrolyser allocation. Many companies have ambitious climate targets and depend on the corresponding energy infrastructure for their implementation. Cities and municipalities also registered their needs.

Many comments call for a stronger interconnection of electricity and gas infrastructure. The TSOs are making a constructive contribution to integrated system development planning.

Counties and municipalities as well as interest groups are interested in which criteria the TSOs have used for HVDC bundling.

The aspects of a decentralised energy transition and economic efficiency were also addressed in the comments. Once again, there were also submissions pertaining to specific projects as well.

A number of respondents also called for additional sensitivity analyses concerning the variation of individual parameters, such as efficiency assumptions, interconnector capacities and the underlying weather year.

All graphics, tables and texts from the second draft of the Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045, version 2023, are licensed under Creative Commons licence CC BY 4.0. The text of the licence is available at creativecommons.org / licenses / by / 4.0 / legalcode. 

An example for proper referencing is: Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045, (2023), second draft | Transmission System Operators CC-BY-4.0
For adaptations / edits: Network Development Plan Electricity 2037/2045, (2023), second draft | Transmission System Operators (M) CC-BY-4.0 

Excluded from this rule are graphics, tables and texts with a different or additional source. Maps can be used with reference to the source and licence indicated there.